Bitcoin Rally Cools as Spot and Futures Demand Fades

Bitcoin's recent advance is showing distinct signs of fatigue despite a widely watched industry gauge nearing its maximum reading. During Wednesday's Asian morning hours, the leading cryptocurrency edged up 0.4% to change hands just above $83,300. This minor recovery follows a retreat from an eight-month peak near $87,400 achieved earlier in the cycle.

Onchain analysis firm CryptoQuant currently places its proprietary Bull Score at 90 out of 100. This metric aggregates various blockchain and market indicators into a single reading, surging after bitcoin surpassed its 365-day moving average last week—a technical threshold the firm interprets as a bull market confirmation. However, the buying momentum underpinning that initial breakout is rapidly dissipating.

Fading Demand and Profit-Taking

CryptoQuant estimates that spot demand has contracted by roughly 170,000 bitcoins over the trailing 30-day period. The firm measures apparent demand by comparing newly minted coins against shifts in dormant supply that has remained unmoved for a year or longer. Because this indicator has trended downward throughout the month, the broader market is currently absorbing fewer coins than the network generates.

Derivatives markets are experiencing an even sharper deceleration. Speculative futures demand growth plummeted by 90% over a 15-day window, dropping from approximately 164,000 bitcoins on September 14 down to just 16,000 bitcoins by September 29. Meanwhile, recent market participants are sitting on an average unrealized profit of 33%, representing the highest level seen since December 2024. This profitability prompted heavy realization, with traders locking in gains on 25,700 bitcoins on September 22, marking the single largest day of profit-taking for the year.

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, emphasized the structural challenge facing the market in a recent report. Without fresh capital entering the space, rallies struggle to extend further, Moreno noted, adding that ongoing contraction in spot demand and stalling futures growth make near-term upside increasingly difficult to sustain.

Broader Market Context

Other major digital assets experienced modest movements during the session. Solana and Zcash led the large-cap cohort, each advancing nearly 2% to trade around $119 and just above $1,400 respectively. Ripple's XRP gained roughly 1% to sit just under $1.50, while ether, Binance Coin, and Tron each added less than 1%. Simultaneously, altcoin holders have increased exchange deposits, registering 76,000 transfers across seven days from 51,000 separate addresses—the highest volume observed since October 2025. Because assets held on exchanges can be liquidated swiftly, this rising exchange supply presents a ready source of potential selling pressure.

Traditional financial markets displayed general stability alongside these crypto developments. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.9% with broad sectoral gains, while sovereign bonds steadied following a severe selloff. Equity index futures likewise pointed toward positive openings in Europe and Wall Street.

Why it matters

The friction observed in bitcoin's latest price action highlights the delicate balance between technical momentum and underlying liquidity. While widely followed gauges suggest strong macro sentiment, the erosion of spot and futures demand demonstrates that rallies require continuous capital inflows to persist. For institutional observers and market participants, the divergence between high index scores and shrinking onchain demand serves as a critical reminder to monitor fundamental liquidity rather than price action alone.

What to watch

Market participants are now closely monitoring a key U.S. inflation reading scheduled for release later in the day. This data point will likely provide definitive clues regarding the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate trajectory. A higher-than-expected inflation print generally increases the probability of monetary tightening, thereby strengthening the U.S. dollar and applying downward pressure on risk-sensitive assets like cryptocurrencies. Conversely, a softer inflation print could bolster expectations for rate cuts, creating a more favorable macroeconomic backdrop for digital asset valuations.